Quantitative assessment and visualization of flight risk induced by coupled multi-factor under icing conditions

Aircraft icing has been proven to be one of the most serious threats to flight safety. During the analysis of flight risk under icing conditions, quantitative assessment and visualization of flight risk are quite essential as they provide safe manipulation strategies in intricate conditions. However, they are rarely studied. Since the icing flight accidents are the result of the coupling of multiple unfavorable factors, in present study, we have proposed a method to quantitatively assess flight risk induced by multi-factor coupling under icing conditions by Monte-Carlo simulation and multivariate extreme value theory. The results demonstrate that the flight risk probability increases with the rise of unfavorable factors. Besides, a flight risk visualization method named flight safety window has been presented to build the flight risk distribution cloud maps in different complex conditions. The cloud maps show that the icing would give rise to atrophy of the safety scope, and the consequence would be even more severe when coupled with other more unfavorable factors. The proposed methods in this study would be useful in flight risk analysis under icing conditions and can enhance the pilot's situational awareness in selecting correct strategies within the safety zone to avoid unsafe manipulation.     

基于梯度提升决策树的量子科学实验卫星光学实验预测

量子科学实验卫星在轨运行期间完成4种光学实验，地面监测人员通过遥测参数阈值判断卫星是否进行光学实验、实验类型及实验结果.这种方法需要预先设定大量阈值，并且这些阈值需要根据在轨卫星重新设定，可扩展性较差.针对以上问题，提出一种基于机器学习的光学实验判别方法，将量子科学实验卫星的光学实验监测任务抽象为机器学习中的多元分类问题，构建分类模型，利用量子科学实验卫星的真实历史遥测数据对模型进行训练，并通过真实实验计划对训练得到的模型进行验证.实验结果表明，本文提出的方法在没有专家先验知识的前提下，判别准确率达到99%，可用于量子科学实验卫星光学实验的实时监测任务.提出的基于机器学习的判别方法具有较强的可扩展性，可应用于卫星在轨运行的其他监测任务.      

利用极值分布概型预测海峡地区风环境期望风速

根据《公路桥梁抗风设计规范》,对于特别重要的桥梁要求对桥址处的设计基本风速进行重新观测或参考实测风速样本进行推算得到,选取合理的基本设计风速。本文选取厦门-漳州跨海大桥附近的厦门市专业气象台和龙海市气象局360个月的极值10分钟平均时距的风速和风向标准值,采用3种极值分布概型推算出不同重现期内的设计风速。得出了厦门海峡桥址处100年一遇的期望风速为35．8m／s,小于规范给出的厦门地区100年一遇基本设计风速39．7m／s。     

复合材料飞机结构材料和设计许用值的确定方法

分析国内外复合材料飞机结构材料许用值、设计许用值的确定原则和方法,研究给出了复合材料结构材料许用值的表征和应用、试验以反试验数据的统计分析方法,以及静强度、疲劳强度、损伤容限和修理设计许用值的确定方法.     

分布式创新中技术知识整合框架研究

基于演化、资源和知识的视角,提供了分布式创新中技术开发背景下技术知识整合的分析框架。从三个视角研究分布式创新要素,阐述了知识、知识转移和执行之间的结构关系,为企业整合知识资源,提高分布式创新能力提供借鉴和指导。     

基于净现值法的服务通告经济性评估

为了有效地对服务通告进行管理,保证航空器运营的适航性和经济性,必须对服务通告进行有效的评估。本文从经济性的角度出发,提出了基于净现值法的服务通告评估流程和量化指标,实现了服务通告评估由定性分析到定量分析的转变.     

基于奇异值分解的铅锌冶炼过程故障二次分离

铅锌冶炼过程是非常复杂的反应工艺,工况变化较大,在线监控和故障诊断的难度很大。铅锌冶炼过程故障分离的目的是根据异常监控变量来判断故障类型,由于铅锌冶炼过程故障的特殊性,不同类型的故障可能导致相同的监控变量发生异常,采用传统的故障分离方法不能有效地判断故障类型。本文提出一种基于奇异值分解的故障二次分离的方法,通过进一步分析监控变量和故障类型的对应关系,解决故障分离不彻底的问题。试验结果证明了方法的有效性。     

Exploration and implementation of commonality valuation method in commercial aircraft family design

Commercial aircraft family design can reduce development costs, shorten development cycles, and expand the market coverage of aircraft. Commercial aircraft family development has become one of the most important features of modern aircraft design. This paper explores the effects of commonality on different aircraft models in a commercial aircraft family. The existing product commonality indexes are summarized and their limitations in the application to aircraft design are discussed. Then a new component commonality index is proposed based on the component decomposition structure. A model for calculating the aircraft program value is established,which considers development costs, manufacturing costs, sale price, operation costs and residual costs. The effects of aircraft commonality on time and economic costs of both development and manufacturing, and on sale price, are analyzed and quantified. The commonality evaluation strategy is obtained, which features comprehensive consideration of the aircraft program value and time costs. The break-even analysis of aircraft is proceeded on the basis of costs and price data. By using a real option method, the strategy considers the uncertainty of the aircraft program and the flexibility of the manufacturer. This strategy proves to be rational and applicable to aircraft design based on the calculation of three examples and the analysis of parameter sensitivity.     

Hopkinson系统中套筒相对长度对结构件过载值的影响

采用Hopkinson压杆实验装置和Ansys/Ls-Dyna商业计算软件,针对高过载试验中结构件过载值受重力影响的问题进行研究。重力可以使结构件与入射杆之间发生滑移,使得两者不同轴,造成实验结果偏差。分析中不可忽略重力对试验的影响。分析套筒相对长度对试验结果的影响。当相对长度小于0.6时,不能给结构件施加有效的约束;当套筒相对长度大于0.6时,可以认为重力影响基本消失,可以有效地降低重力方向的影响。     

控制系统模拟信号处理方法研究

模拟量采集精度对控制系统具有重要意义.研究了模拟量采集过程的软件设计流程,层次划分和模型,从传感器AD值到模拟量物理值之间不同处理阶段给出了常用方法描述.针对错误处理详细描述了错误诊断方法.最后将模拟量采集软件应用于某发动机模拟量采集中,通过试验进行模拟量测量值和软件输出值对比计算,结果表明此模拟量采集软件输出模拟量精度均在有效范围内.